Nnianim: Abakɔsɛm mu Nsakrae a Ɛbaa Wiase Dade Dwumadibea Kɛse Sen Biara Mu
Wɔ wiase nyinaa adetɔ so ahwɛfo fam no, agoru nhoma a wɔde hwehwɛ dade fi China no fã kɛse no ara nsakrae mfe aduonu: hwehwɛ obi a ɔde bɛma, yɛ ne bo a ɛba fam koraa ho nkitahodi, na fa mena. Ná volume yɛ ɔhene, na na akwan horow a wobetumi apaw no nni awiei.
Yɛma wo akwaaba ba 2026. Saa agodie nhoma no yɛ nea ne bere atwam wɔ aban kwan so.
Wɔ akwankyerɛ a wɔde too gua a efi "Mysteel" afe afe nhyiam no mu ne China Export Licensing System foforo (Announcement No. 79) a wɔde dii dwuma akyi no, gua no akɔ "Weak Balance" fã bi mu.
Dɛn na eyi kyerɛ ma w’adwuma no? Ɛkyerɛ sɛ bere a na nneɛma a wɔde ma boro so kɛse na nneɛma bo a ɛkɔ fam wɔ abotan-ase no reba awiei. China ahyɛ da redan afi "Scale Expansion" so akɔ "Quality Control" so. Wɔ saa adwene a ɛkɔ akyiri yi mu no, yɛkyekyɛ data, nhyehyeɛ, ne akwan a wobɛfa so abɔ wo nneɛma a wode ma no ho ban afe yi.
1. The Policy Shock: Nea enti a "Export Licenses" Sesa Biribiara
Nhyehyɛeɛ Nkyerɛaseɛ & Nneɛma a Wɔde Kɔma
Wɔ Ɔbɛnem 1, 2026 no, mmara foforɔ no hyɛɛ aseɛ, na ɛfa HS mmara bɛboro 300-firi mfitiaseɛ billets kɔsi nea wɔawiedade a wɔabobɔw. Eyi nyɛ nkrataa a wɔde yɛ adwuma ara kwa; ɛyɛ afiri a wɔde yiyi nneɛma mu.
"MTC" Bottleneck no na ɛyɛ adwuma
Kan no, na nnwumakuw a wɔtɔn nneɛma betumi anya nsɛm afi baabiara. Afei, sɛ wobenya anTumi krataa a wɔde kɔ amannɔne, ɛsɛ sɛ wɔn a wɔde nneɛma kɔ amannɔne no de Quality Certificate (Mill Test Certificate/MTC) a nea ɔyɛe no de ama tẽẽ no kyerɛ.
- Nkɛntɛnso a Enyae:Mprempren wɔato "mfinimfinifo" ne "grey market" aguadifo mpempem pii a wontumi nnya aban owiyammo biakoyɛ ho ban no mu wɔ gua a wɔde kɔ amannɔne no mu.
- Data a Wɔde Di Dwuma no: Nhwehwɛmufo hyɛ nkɔm sɛ eyi bɛyi nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne a ɛnyɛ papa a ɛreyɛ adu ɔpepem 18 afi hɔ bere a wɔde toto nea ɛsen biara ho no, na ɛbɛma nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne nyinaa ayɛ den bɛyɛ tɔn ɔpepem 110.
- Onimdefo Fa:Sɛ wo supplier no twentwɛn ne nan ase sɛ ɔbɛkyerɛ wo wɔn tumi krataa anaasɛ ɔsrɛ sɛ wɔmfa sikatua ho nhyehyɛe a ɛyɛ soronko mma de "bypass" amanne kwan so a, tu mmirika. Mprempren mmara sodi nkutoo ne ɔkwan a wɔfa so de nneɛma mena.
2. Supply & Demand: Ɛhe na Dade no Rekɔ?
Guadi mu Nneɛma & Data Nhwehwɛmu
Adwene a ɛnteɛ bi wɔ hɔ sɛ esiane sɛ China adan ne afie ho gua reyɛ nwini nti, dade bɛyɛ efĩ a ne bo yɛ mmerɛw. Nea enti a ɛno yɛ mfomso ni.
"Abien-Track" no hwehwɛ Nokwasɛm
Yiw, adansi a wɔhwehwɛ wɔ amanne kwan so no so atew bɛyɛ sɛtɔn ɔpepem 8esiane adan foforo a wofi ase a ɛkɔ fam (-8% kosi -10%) nti. Nanso, dade a wɔreyɛ no resen akɔ nnwuma a ɛsom bo kɛse a wɔne wɔn ho wɔn ho si akan tẽẽ wɔ tumi a wɔde yɛ adwuma ho:
- Ahoɔden Dwumadibea Foforo: Mframa ahoɔden abantenten a wɔhwehwɛ no akɔ soro 25%.
- EV a Wɔyɛ: High-ahoɔden kar dade ahwehwɛde kɔɔ soro 18%.
- Ofie Nneɛma a Wɔde Yɛ Adwuma: Export-driven demand for galvanized sheets kɔɔ soro 12%.
Nneɛma a Wɔyɛ no Cap
China rehyɛ "Capacity Ceiling" ho mmara denneennen. Total crude steel output for 2026 yɛ capped na wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ ɛbɛkɔ so ayɛtɔn ɔpepepem 1.01(ɛkɔ fam 1.5%). Nea afi mu aba: Nneɛma a wɔde ma no yɛ den sen sɛnea wususuw. Ɛnyɛ sɛ wo ne adansi adwumakuw afoforo resi akan kɛkɛ bio; wo ne EV abran resi akan wɔ high-quality production slots ho.
3. "Green" Akontaabu: CBAM ne Green Premiums
Ɛka ho Nhwehwɛmu ma Europa & U.S. Adetɔfo
Sɛ wode po so hyɛn rekɔ Europa a,...Carbon Border Nsakrae Afiri (CBAM) .nyɛ daakye ahunahuna bio-ɛyɛ mprempren line ade wɔ wo sikasɛm nhyehyɛe so.
Momma yɛnhwɛ akontaahyɛde ahorow no:
- Ka a Wɔbɔ wɔ "Dirty" Steel ho: Dade a enni -nhyiam a wɔde bɛba amannɔne no betumi ama wɔabɔ carbon tow a ɛbɛn €60 wɔ tɔn biara mu.
- Chinafo "Green" Dade Ho Ka:China rema Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) adwumayɛ akɔ soro ntɛmntɛm akodu 15% wɔ tumi nyinaa mu. Mprempren sika a wɔbɔ ma saa dade a ɛba fam-carbon yi rehuruhuruw wɔ $30-$80 USD ntam wɔ ton biara mu.
- Sikasɛm mu Nokwasɛm:"Green Steel" a ne bo yɛ den kakra a wobɛtɔ afi China no, mprempren ne bo yɛ mmerɛw wɔ akontaabu mu sen sɛ wubetua carbon tow asotwe wɔ EU hye so. Chinafo owiyammo a ɛwɔ soro-tier reyɛ nneɛma a wɔagye atom sɛ EPD (Environmental Product Declaration) dedaw de adi saa ahiade yi ho dwuma.
4. Boɔ Ho Nkɔmhyɛ 2026: Gyinabea wɔ Volatility so
Nea Ɛsɛ sɛ Wohwɛ kwan wɔ Wo Invoice So
Bere a "Weak Balance" no wɔ agoru no mu no, dɛn na ɛbɛba nneɛma bo so?
- Dade bo reyɛ mmerɛw, na ɛbɛyɛ sɛ ɛresɔ $90-$95/ton ahwɛ bere a China de dade a wɔabubu pii di dwuma no (nneɛma a wɔabubu no adu tɔn ɔpepem 320).
- Nneɛma a Wɔawie:Ɛmfa ho sɛ nneɛma a wɔde yɛ nneɛma a ne bo yɛ mmerɛw no, ɛnyɛ nea ɛda adi sɛ dade a wɔawie bo bɛkɔ fam.
Sɛnti 1: Mills de mfaso a wobenya adi kan sen dodow a wobenya.
Ntease 2:Wɔtow nneɛma a atwa yɛn ho ahyia ho mmara sodi ho ka (bɛyɛ . 50 RMB/ton ma ultra-low emission retrofits) wɔ bo no mu.
- Atemmu no:Hwɛ kwan sɛ nneɛma bo bɛsakra teateaa (wɔ 15% mu). Nna a na yɛtwɛn sɛ wɔbɛma nneɛma bo akɔ fam 30% no atwam. Wɔde mmara ho ka ama gua no akɔ soro.
5. Akwankyerɛ Ho Afotuo: Sɛnea wobɛtena ase (na woanya nkɔsoɔ) wɔ afe 2026 mu
Sɛ́ B2B adetɔfo no, wo asiane ho nsɛm asesa afi "Boɔ Asiane" akɔ "Supply Chain Asiane." Yɛn anammɔn 3 akwankyerɛ a yɛde bɛfa 2026 mu ni:
Anamɔn 1: Vetting yɛ Nea ɛho hia kɛse
Mfa "Yiw" sɛ mmuae. Bisa adanse.
Bisa sɛ hwɛ Export License application abakɔsɛm.
Hwɛ sɛ Mill abusuabɔ no yɛ nokware. So w’aguadifo no ne nea ɔyɛ nneɛma no wɔ fekubɔ a ɛyɛ ɔkwan pa so?
Anamɔn 2: Yɛ nsakrae wɔ Wo Bere a Wɔde Di Dwuma no mu
Tumi krataa nhwehwɛmu nhyehyɛe foforo no de adwumayɛ bere ka ho.
Gyinapɛn Dedaw: Nnafua 30-40.
2026 Gyinapɛn: Nnafua 45-55.
Afotu: Yɛ nnafua 10 buffer foforo wɔ wo logistics nhyehyɛe no mu na ama woabu akontaa wɔ amanneɛbɔ nkrataa mu nhwehwɛmu ho.
Anamɔn 3: Lock in Supply
Esiane sɛ quotas abɛyɛ ade a ɛsom bo nti, "Spot Buying" yɛ asiane.
Yɛhyɛ nyansa sɛ tu kɔ Quarterly Contracts so. Wei ma wɔn a wɔde nneɛma ma (te sɛ yɛn) tumi di kan sie export quotas, hwɛ hu sɛ wo nneɛma no rennya bumped mma higher-margin order.
Ayɔnkofa a Wɔbɛyɛ ama Bere Foforo no
2026 dade gua no nyɛ nea ɛfa nea ne bo yɛ mmerɛw sen biara ho; ɛfa nea obetumi de ama ankasa ho.
China da so ara yɛ wiase no mu beae titiriw a wɔyɛ nneɛma, nanso ɛrekɔ soro wɔ nneɛma a ɛsom bo no mu. WɔPriomisteel na ɔkyerɛwee,yɛde mfe pii asiesie yɛn ho ama nsakrae yi. Yɛwɔ tumi krataa, owiyammo fekubɔ, ne green product portfolio a ɛbɛma w’adwuma no ayɛ nea ahobammɔ wom afi mmara mu basabasayɛ ho.
Mma nhyehyɛe foforo no nkyere wo.
